Where the market is wrong on Afturelding v Breidablik
Afturelding meet Breidablik in the Cup final.
The baseline ratings are close, 1638 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Afturelding, 68% against 53%. Attacking output favors Afturelding on expected goals, 2.8 to 2.1 per match.
Afturelding arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 13 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Breidablik, L 1-2 @ Njardvik, W 2-0 v Vestri, W 2-0 v Grotta.
Breidablik are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 9 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Afturelding, L 1-2 @ KA Akureyri, L 0-2 v Stjarnan, L 3-4 v Fram Reykjavik.
Breidablik hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Afturelding 1-2 Breidablik.
The market prices AFT at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on Afturelding: a 14.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
