Petare FC v Aragua FC

Petare FC meet Aragua FC in the Segunda División regular season - 15. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 31% PET, 39% draw, 30% ARA.

The baseline ratings are close, 1551 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 53%. Attacking output favors Aragua FC on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 14%, over 2.5 goals around 7%. Draw no bet leans Petare FC at 51%; double chance reads Petare FC or draw 70%, Aragua FC or draw 69%.

Petare FC arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Aragua FC, L 0-2 @ Bolívar, L 0-2 @ Monagas II, D 1-1 v Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz.

Aragua FC are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Petare FC, D 1-1 @ Caracas FC, L 1-2 v Monagas II, W 2-1 @ Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz.

Petare FC hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Petare FC 2-1 Aragua FC.

The market prices PET at 34% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 62 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.