Where the market is wrong on São João Ver v AD Marco 09
São João Ver meet AD Marco 09 in the Liga 3 regular season - 4.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 53%. Attacking output favors São João Ver on expected goals, 0.8 to 0.8 per match.
São João Ver arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 2 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v AD Marco 09, D 0-0 @ Florgrade, L 0-1 @ Trofense, L 1-3 v Fafe.
AD Marco 09 are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 6 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ São João Ver, W 1-0 @ Régua, W 2-0 v Vianense, L 1-2 @ Varzim.
AD Marco 09 hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: São João Ver 0-0 AD Marco 09.
The market prices SÃO at 34% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 63 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
