Where the market is wrong on União Santarém v Caldas
União Santarém meet Caldas in the Liga 3 regular season - 4 at Campo Cha das Padeiras, Santarem.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Caldas, 40% against 30%. Attacking output favors Caldas on expected goals, 1.0 to 0.8 per match.
União Santarém arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 1 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Caldas, L 0-5 @ CF Os Belenenses, D 1-1 v Oliveirense, L 0-2 @ SC Covilha.
Caldas are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ União Santarém, L 1-3 v Sintrense, L 2-4 v Louletano, D 0-0 v Lusitano Évora 1911.
The market prices UNI at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on Caldas: a 7.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 71 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output