Where the market is wrong on AD Marco 09 v Vianense
AD Marco 09 meet Vianense in the Liga 3 regular season - 3 at Municipal de Marco de Canaveses, Marco de Canaveses.
Vianense rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1627 to 1500. Recent form leans Vianense, 65% against 50%. Attacking output favors Vianense on expected goals, 1.9 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 41%, over 2.5 goals around 46%. Draw no bet leans Vianense at 64%; double chance reads AD Marco 09 or draw 55%, Vianense or draw 75%.
AD Marco 09 arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Vianense, L 1-2 @ Varzim, W 2-1 v Pacos Ferreira, D 1-1 @ Cinfães.
Vianense are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ AD Marco 09, W 2-0 v Trofense, D 0-0 @ Fafe, L 0-3 @ AVS.
AD Marco 09 hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: AD Marco 09 2-0 Vianense.
The market prices AD at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on Vianense: a 19.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
