Where the market is wrong on Ilkeston Town v Quorn
Ilkeston Town meet Quorn in the Non League Premier - Northern regular season - 8.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Ilkeston Town, 50% against 33%. Attacking output favors Quorn on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 63%, over 2.5 goals around 63%. Draw no bet leans Ilkeston Town at 55%; double chance reads Ilkeston Town or draw 68%, Quorn or draw 61%.
Ilkeston Town arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 2 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 0-7 @ Bury, D 1-1 @ Ashton United, L 0-3 v Cleethorpes Town, L 1-2 v Warrington Town.
Quorn are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 8 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 3-6 v Whitby Town, D 2-2 v Gainsborough Trinity, D 2-2 @ Lancaster City, L 0-1 @ Rylands.
Ilkeston Town hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2021: Quorn 1-2 Ilkeston Town.
The market prices ILK at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output