Where the market is wrong on United of Manchester v Avro
United of Manchester meet Avro in the Non League Premier - Northern regular season - 8 at Broadhurst Park, Manchester.
Avro rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1684 to 1400. Recent form leans Avro, 73% against 28%. Attacking output favors Avro on expected goals, 3.1 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 73%, over 2.5 goals around 90%. Draw no bet leans Avro at 70%; double chance reads United of Manchester or draw 47%, Avro or draw 77%.
United of Manchester arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 4 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Redcar Athletic, D 1-1 @ Bamber Bridge, L 1-2 v Workington, L 0-1 @ Hyde United.
Avro are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 14 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 5-3 v Stockton Town, D 4-4 v Leek Town, W 1-0 @ Hyde United, W 4-1 v Workington.
The market prices UNI at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on Avro: a 9.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 80 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output