Where the market is wrong on Hamilton Academical v Kilmarnock II
Hamilton Academical meet Kilmarnock II in the Challenge Cup group stage - 5 at ZLX Stadium, Hamilton.
Hamilton Academical rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1674 to 1400. Recent form leans Hamilton Academical, 74% against 31%. Attacking output favors Hamilton Academical on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.6 per match.
Hamilton Academical arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 13 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Kilmarnock II, W 1-0 v Cowdenbeath, W 4-1 v Queen of the South, W 4-0 @ Spartans.
Kilmarnock II are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 8 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Hamilton Academical, L 2-3 @ Dumbarton, W 2-1 @ Cowdenbeath, D 1-1 @ Cumbernauld Colts.
The market prices HAM at 86% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 12.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 59 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output