CSKA Sofia v Qarabag

CSKA Sofia meet Qarabag in the UEFA Europa League 2nd qualifying round at National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia. The model makes Qarabag the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 29% CSK, 30% draw, 41% QAR.

The baseline ratings are close, 1573 to 1565, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 61% against 58%. Attacking output favors Qarabag on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.2 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 54%, over 2.5 goals around 54%. Draw no bet leans Qarabag at 59%; double chance reads CSKA Sofia or draw 59%, Qarabag or draw 71%.

CSKA Sofia arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Qarabag, D 0-0 @ Slavia Sofia, W 2-1 @ Derry City, W 3-2 v Derry City.

Qarabag are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v CSKA Sofia, W 3-0 @ Vestri, W 3-0 v Vestri, L 0-1 @ Ferencvarosi TC.

Qarabag hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia.

The market prices CSK at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on Qarabag: a 4.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 64 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.