Ilves v Stjarnan

Ilves meet Stjarnan in the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd qualifying round at Tammelan Stadion, Tampere. The model makes Ilves the most likely outcome at 48%, with the full read 48% ILV, 26% draw, 26% STJ.

Ilves rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1581 to 1443. Recent form leans Ilves, 60% against 40%. Attacking output favors Ilves on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 76%, over 2.5 goals around 87%. Draw no bet leans Ilves at 64%; double chance reads Ilves or draw 74%, Stjarnan or draw 52%.

Ilves arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 7 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Lahti, L 0-1 @ Stjarnan, W 3-1 @ Turku PS, W 3-1 v FC Differdange 03.

Stjarnan are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 @ IA Akranes, W 1-0 v Ilves, L 0-5 @ KR Reykjavik, D 2-2 @ Vikingur Gota.

Stjarnan hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Stjarnan 1-0 Ilves.

The market prices ILV at 53% implied. Our number sits apart on Stjarnan: a 4.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.