Where the market is wrong on Alashkert v CFR 1907 Cluj
Alashkert meet CFR 1907 Cluj in the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd qualifying round at FFA Academy Stadium, Yerevan. The model makes CFR 1907 Cluj the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 32% ALA, 32% draw, 35% CFR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1565, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 61%. Attacking output favors Alashkert on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 40%, over 2.5 goals around 33%. Draw no bet leans CFR 1907 Cluj at 52%; double chance reads Alashkert or draw 65%, CFR 1907 Cluj or draw 68%.
Alashkert arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v CFR 1907 Cluj, D 1-1 @ Yelimay Semey, D 1-1 v Yelimay Semey, L 0-1 @ Maccabi Tel Aviv.
CFR 1907 Cluj are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 v FC Voluntari, D 1-1 @ Alashkert, L 1-2 @ Oţelul, L 0-2 v Gloria Bistriţa.
The market prices ALA at 26% implied. Our number sits apart on Alashkert: a 6.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output