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Super League 1 · Regular Season - 4 · Greece

PAOK v Aris Thessalonikis

· Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Where the market is wrong on PAOK v Aris Thessalonikis

PAOK meet Aris Thessalonikis in the Super League 1 regular season - 4 at Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki.

The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1615, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Aris Thessalonikis, 68% against 53%. Attacking output favors PAOK on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.

PAOK arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Atromitos, L 2-3 @ Brann, W 4-0 v Levadiakos, D 1-1 v Brann.

Aris Thessalonikis are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 12 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v OFI, W 3-2 @ Kalamata, W 2-0 @ Anagennisi Karditsas, L 2-6 @ Napoli.

The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK.

The market prices PAO at 57% implied. Our number sits apart on Aris Thessalonikis: a 18.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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PAOK

LDWLW8-5-7

Scored 1.95 · Conceded 1.50 · Clean sheets 20% · BTTS 70%

  • WAAtromitos2-1
  • LABrann2-3
  • WHLevadiakos4-0
  • DHBrann1-1
  • LAAnderlecht2-3

Aris Thessalonikis

WLWWW10-7-3

Scored 1.60 · Conceded 1.20 · Clean sheets 35% · BTTS 60%

  • WHOFI2-1
  • WAKalamata3-2
  • WAAnagennisi Karditsas2-0
  • LANapoli2-6
  • WAMonza3-1

Head-to-head

10 meetings

PAOKrecordAris Thessalonikis
3
3
4 draws

Goals

10-9

for each

Avg goals

1.9

per game

BTTS

50%

both scored

Over 2.5

40%

3+ goals

PAOK

Recent
DWDDLW
Wins 3Goals 10-9

Biggest win 3-1

Aris Thessalonikis

Recent
DLDDWL
Wins 3Goals 9-10

Biggest win 1-0

  • Aris Thessalonikis0-0PAOK
  • PAOK3-1Aris Thessalonikis
  • Aris Thessalonikis1-1PAOK
  • Aris Thessalonikis0-0PAOK
  • PAOK0-1Aris Thessalonikis
  • Aris Thessalonikis1-2PAOK
  • PAOK0-1Aris Thessalonikis
  • Aris Thessalonikis2-1PAOK
  • PAOK0-0Aris Thessalonikis
  • PAOK3-2Aris Thessalonikis

Managers

A. Lisci

Italy · 40

In charge since 2026 · 5 teams managed

  • Osasuna2025–2026
  • Levante2021–2022
  • Levante II2020–2021

Michalis Grigoriou

Head coach

In charge since 2025

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.