Where the market is wrong on Gimcheon Sangmu FC v Suwon City FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC meet Suwon City FC in the FA Cup round of 32 at Gimcheon Stadium, Gimcheon. The model makes Suwon City FC the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 26% GIM, 28% draw, 46% SUW.
Suwon City FC rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1604 to 1420. Recent form leans Suwon City FC, 65% against 43%. Attacking output favors Suwon City FC on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 59%, over 2.5 goals around 68%. Draw no bet leans Suwon City FC at 64%; double chance reads Gimcheon Sangmu FC or draw 54%, Suwon City FC or draw 74%.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Daejeon Citizen, D 1-1 @ Gwangju FC, L 0-2 @ Gangwon FC, D 1-1 v Bucheon FC 1995.
Suwon City FC are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts), 15 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Daegu FC, D 2-2 v Seoul E-Land FC, W 3-2 v Pyeongchang United, W 5-0 v Jeonnam Dragons.
The market prices GIM at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on Suwon City FC: a 17.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
