Where the market is wrong on Malisheva v Hibernian
Malisheva meet Hibernian in the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd qualifying round at Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri, Pristina. The model makes Malisheva the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 39% MAL, 30% draw, 31% HIB.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 50%. Attacking output favors Malisheva on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 60%, over 2.5 goals around 60%. Draw no bet leans Malisheva at 56%; double chance reads Malisheva or draw 69%, Hibernian or draw 61%.
Malisheva arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 13 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Hibernian, W 5-0 v Vllaznia Shkodër, L 1-2 @ Vllaznia Shkodër, W 3-2 v Drita.
Hibernian are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Malisheva, W 2-1 v Brondby, W 5-1 @ Cliftonville FC, L 0-1 @ Shamrock Rovers.
The market prices MAL at 17% implied. Our number sits apart on Malisheva: a 22.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output