FK Liepaja v Austria Vienna

FK Liepaja meet Austria Vienna in the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd qualifying round at Slokas Stadions, Jurmala. The model makes Austria Vienna the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 31% FK , 29% draw, 40% AUS.

The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 57%. Attacking output favors Austria Vienna on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.3 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 62%, over 2.5 goals around 63%. Draw no bet leans Austria Vienna at 57%; double chance reads FK Liepaja or draw 60%, Austria Vienna or draw 69%.

FK Liepaja arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ FS Jelgava, L 0-2 v Austria Vienna, W 2-1 @ Dečić, L 0-1 @ Auda.

Austria Vienna are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 13 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 @ Wiener SC, W 2-0 @ FK Liepaja, W 4-1 v Paks, D 1-1 v Dunajska Streda.

Austria Vienna hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FK Liepaja 0-2 Austria Vienna.

The market prices FK at 12% implied. Our number sits apart on FK Liepaja: a 18.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.