Where the market is wrong on FK Crvena Zvezda v Larne
FK Crvena Zvezda meet Larne in the UEFA Champions League 2nd qualifying round at Stadion Rajko Mit, Belgrade. The model makes FK Crvena Zvezda the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 38% FK , 29% draw, 33% LAR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1650 to 1592, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans FK Crvena Zvezda, 71% against 63%. Attacking output favors FK Crvena Zvezda on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 66%, over 2.5 goals around 67%. Draw no bet leans FK Crvena Zvezda at 54%; double chance reads FK Crvena Zvezda or draw 67%, Larne or draw 62%.
FK Crvena Zvezda arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 15 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Vojvodina, W 4-0 @ Larne, W 5-0 v Macva, L 1-3 @ Zenit.
Larne are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 v FK Crvena Zvezda, W 2-1 v Tre Fiori, W 1-0 @ Tre Fiori, W 2-1 @ H&W Welders.
FK Crvena Zvezda hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Larne 0-4 FK Crvena Zvezda.
The market prices FK at 88% implied. Our number sits apart on Larne: a 28.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
