Treze v Sao Jose

Treze meet Sao Jose in the Serie D round of 16. The model makes Treze the most likely outcome at 38%, with the full read 38% TRE, 33% draw, 30% SAO.

The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 45%. Attacking output favors Treze on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 36%, over 2.5 goals around 30%. Draw no bet leans Treze at 56%; double chance reads Treze or draw 70%, Sao Jose or draw 62%.

Treze arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Sao Jose, L 1-2 @ Sao Jose, W 1-0 v CRAC, L 1-2 @ CRAC.

Sao Jose are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 4 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Treze, W 2-1 v Treze, D 0-0 @ Portuguesa RJ, W 1-0 v Portuguesa RJ.

The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Treze 1-0 Sao Jose.

The market prices TRE at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on Sao Jose: a 7.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.