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Modena v Fiorentina

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Modena v Fiorentina: the model read

Modena meet Fiorentina in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies.

The baseline ratings are close, 1509 to 1553, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 58%. Attacking output favors Fiorentina on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 49%, over 2.5 goals around 44%. Draw no bet leans Modena at 53%; double chance reads Modena or draw 68%, Fiorentina or draw 64%.

Modena arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Cremonese, W 2-1 @ Benevento, L 2-3 @ Venezia, D 0-0 v Vis Pesaro.

Fiorentina are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Frosinone, L 0-4 @ AS Roma, W 4-1 v Benevento, D 1-1 v Deportivo La Coruna.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Modena

WDLWW7-4-7

Scored 1.39 · Conceded 1.00 · Clean sheets 33.3% · BTTS 44.4%

  • WACremonese3-0
  • WABenevento2-1
  • LAVenezia2-3
  • DHVis Pesaro0-0
  • WATrento1-0

Fiorentina

DDWLL8-6-5

Scored 1.42 · Conceded 1.32 · Clean sheets 36.8% · BTTS 42.1%

  • LHFrosinone0-3
  • LAAS Roma0-4
  • WHBenevento4-1
  • DHDeportivo La Coruna1-1
  • DAReal Madrid2-2

Managers

A. Sottil

Italy · 51

In charge since 2025 · 12 teams managed

  • Sampdoria2024–2024
  • Salernitana2024–2024
  • Udinese2022–2023
  • Ascoli2020–2022

F. Grosso

Italy · 48

In charge since 2026 · 9 teams managed

  • Lyon2023–2023
  • Frosinone2021–2023
  • Sion2020–2021
  • Brescia2019–2019

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.