Where the market is wrong on Zrinjski v Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zrinjski meet Zeljeznicar Sarajevo in the Premijer Liga regular season - 3 at Stadion pod Bijelim Brijegom, Mostar.
Zrinjski rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1696 to 1477. Recent form leans Zrinjski, 78% against 48%. Attacking output favors Zrinjski on expected goals, 2.0 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 29%, over 2.5 goals around 38%. Draw no bet leans Zrinjski at 69%; double chance reads Zrinjski or draw 78%, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or draw 52%.
Zrinjski arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 12 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ FK Sarajevo, W 2-0 v Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, W 5-1 @ Radnik Bijeljina, W 2-1 v Čelik.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Siroki Brijeg, L 0-2 @ Zrinjski, W 2-1 v BSK Banja Luka, L 0-3 v Sloboda Tuzla.
The market prices ZRI at 70% implied. Our number sits apart on Zeljeznicar Sarajevo: a 11.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
