Venados FC v Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Venados FC meet Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Liga de Expansión MX apertura - 1 at Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero, undefined. The model makes Venados FC the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 43% VEN, 28% draw, 29% ALE.

The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 43%. Attacking output favors Venados FC on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.3 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 69%, over 2.5 goals around 74%. Draw no bet leans Venados FC at 60%; double chance reads Venados FC or draw 71%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw 57%.

Venados FC arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 12 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Alebrijes de Oaxaca, D 2-2 @ Tlaxcala, W 2-1 v Leones Negros UDG, D 1-1 @ CDS Tampico Madero.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Venados FC, W 3-1 @ Correcaminos Uat, L 1-2 v CDS Tampico Madero, L 0-2 @ Tepatitlán.

Venados FC hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Venados FC 3-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca.

The market prices VEN at 50% implied. Our number sits apart on Alebrijes de Oaxaca: a 5.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.