Island Bay v Miramar: the model read
Island Bay meet Miramar in the Chatham Cup round of 16. The model makes Miramar the most likely outcome at 45%, with the full read 25% ISL, 29% draw, 45% MIR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1444, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Miramar, 42% against 0%. Attacking output favors Miramar on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 62%. Draw no bet leans Miramar at 64%; double chance reads Island Bay or draw 55%, Miramar or draw 75%.
Island Bay arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-1L from their last five (0/15 pts), 1 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Miramar.
Miramar are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v La Luz, L 1-2 @ Cashmere Technical, L 0-1 @ Cerrito, D 1-1 v Atenas.
Miramar hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Island Bay 1-3 Miramar.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
