Where the market is wrong on Næsby v Sundby
Næsby meet Sundby in the 3. Division regular season - 1 at ALPI Arena Naesby, Odense. The model makes Næsby the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 46% NÆS, 27% draw, 27% SUN.
The baseline ratings are close, 1638 to 1541, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Næsby, 68% against 55%. Attacking output favors Næsby on expected goals, 2.5 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 75%, over 2.5 goals around 84%. Draw no bet leans Næsby at 63%; double chance reads Næsby or draw 73%, Sundby or draw 54%.
Næsby arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Middelfart, W 4-2 v Skive, W 4-2 @ Hørsholm-Usserød, W 1-0 v FA 2000.
Sundby are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Ringsted, L 1-3 @ Fremad Amager, L 1-3 v Nykobing FC, D 0-0 @ Frem.
The recent head-to-head is even, 2 apiece across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Sundby 1-0 Næsby.
The market prices NÆS at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on Sundby: a 5.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
