Where the market is wrong on Hørsholm-Usserød v Holstebro
Hørsholm-Usserød meet Holstebro in the 3. Division regular season - 1. The model makes Holstebro the most likely outcome at 53%, with the full read 23% HØR, 24% draw, 53% HOL.
Holstebro rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1673 to 1400. Recent form leans Holstebro, 73% against 30%. Attacking output favors Holstebro on expected goals, 2.6 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 73%, over 2.5 goals around 90%. Draw no bet leans Holstebro at 70%; double chance reads Hørsholm-Usserød or draw 47%, Holstebro or draw 77%.
Hørsholm-Usserød arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 11 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v Roskilde, D 2-2 v FC Nordsjaelland, D 2-2 @ Ringsted, W 2-1 v Ishøj.
Holstebro are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 12 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Skive, L 2-3 @ Thisted FC, W 3-1 @ Nørresundby, W 4-1 v Aalborg Freja.
The market prices HØR at 53% implied. Our number sits apart on Holstebro: a 29.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 86 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
