A goalless draw was the outcome of this FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 16 tie at BC Place, a result that the underlying data suggests heavily favoured Colombia, who created the clearer chances and more persistent pressure. The 0-0 scoreline did not reflect the balance of play; Colombia's expected goals of 1.09 to Switzerland's 0.39 told the story of a match where the South Americans wasted their superiority and Gregor Kobel produced the decisive intervention for Switzerland. The Lemeister model had projected a narrow Colombia win with a 37% probability, and the result, while a deadlock, was consistent with their control of the attacking exchanges.
Chances were absent from the scoreboard, but the statistics painted a clear picture of Colombian dominance. They recorded 15 total shots to Switzerland’s seven, with three on target compared to Switzerland’s two. Nine of Colombia’s attempts came from inside the box, a sign of their ability to carve out dangerous positions, while Switzerland managed just four such efforts. The visitors also earned seven corners to Switzerland’s three, illustrating their sustained pressure. Switzerland’s defensive efforts kept them in the contest, but their offensive output was meager; their expected goals total of 0.39 indicated they rarely threatened the Colombian goal with real conviction.
The match was a choleric affair, with 43 fouls committed and five yellow cards distributed. Granit Xhaka and Denis Zakaria were both booked for Switzerland in the second half before Luis Javier Suárez received his yellow for Colombia. Miro Muheim saw a yellow in extra time, while Davinson Sánchez’s booking for Colombia in the 95th minute capped a combative finale. The high foul count reflected a match that never flowed freely, with neither side able to build sustained passing sequences; Switzerland completed 547 of 631 passes (87%) and Colombia 454 of 547 (83%).
Gregor Kobel was the outstanding performer, earning a match rating of 9.2. He made three saves, including the stops that kept the clean sheet, and his individual performance was critical in salvaging a draw that the Lemeister model gave only a 31% chance of occurring. Granit Xhaka was next best for Switzerland with an 8.0 rating, providing solid midfield work despite his booking. For Colombia, Johan Mojica (7.7), Juan Fernando Quintero (7.6), Nico Elvedi (7.5) and Jaminton Campaz (7.5) were the highest-rated outfielders on the team, but none could find a decisive final ball.
The result leaves this World Cup Round of 16 tie level and sets up a replay or extra-time situation depending on the competition rules, with Colombia likely to feel they let a winnable match slip. Switzerland will take the clean sheet but know they must offer far more in the final third to progress, having failed to register a single shot on target from inside the box until the later stages. The Lemeister model’s pre-match projection of a Colombia win was not fulfilled, but the data from the 120 minutes suggests the South Americans remain the side more likely to advance if they can convert their superior chance creation into goals.
Switzerland 
Colombia