Where the market is wrong on Portimonense v Leixoes
Portimonense meet Leixoes in the Segunda Liga regular season - 4 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Portimão.
Leixoes rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1627 to 1500. Recent form leans Leixoes, 65% against 48%. Attacking output favors Leixoes on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.1 per match.
Portimonense arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Leixoes, D 1-1 @ Benfica B, W 2-0 v Vizela, W 1-0 @ Penafiel.
Leixoes are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Portimonense, L 2-4 v União de Leiria, W 1-0 v Tondela, L 0-1 @ Benfica B.
The market prices POR at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on Leixoes: a 4.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 63 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
