Tondela v Amarante: the model read
Tondela meet Amarante in the Segunda Liga regular season - 1. The model makes Amarante the most likely outcome at 44%, with the full read 24% TON, 32% draw, 44% AMA.
Amarante rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1662 to 1454. Recent form leans Amarante, 74% against 45%. Attacking output favors Amarante on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 31%, over 2.5 goals around 34%. Draw no bet leans Amarante at 65%; double chance reads Tondela or draw 56%, Amarante or draw 76%.
Tondela arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Beira-Mar, L 0-1 @ Famalicao, W 2-1 v Academica, D 1-1 v Nacional.
Amarante are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Chaves, W 3-1 @ Guimaraes B, W 1-0 v União Santarém, D 0-0 @ Trofense.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
