2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 6 · Germany

Energie Cottbus v FC St. Pauli

1-1Full timeSep 20, 2026, 7:30 AM ET· Stadion der Freundschaft, Cottbus· Referee: Michael Bacher

Match analysisPre-match brief

Where the market is wrong on Energie Cottbus v FC St. Pauli

Energie Cottbus meet FC St. Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga regular season - 6 at Stadion der Freundschaft, Cottbus.

The baseline ratings are close, 1516 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 43%. Attacking output favors Energie Cottbus on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.6 per match.

Energie Cottbus arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 11 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v FC St. Pauli, W 3-0 @ Karlsruher SC, D 4-4 @ VfL Wolfsburg, L 3-4 v SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

FC St. Pauli are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Energie Cottbus, W 1-0 v VfL Wolfsburg, D 2-2 @ Arminia Bielefeld, L 1-2 v 1. FC Kaiserslautern.

FC St. Pauli hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Energie Cottbus 1-1 FC St. Pauli.

The market prices ENE at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on Energie Cottbus: a 7.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 70 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Energie Cottbus

LLDWD8-3-8

Scored 1.84 · Conceded 2.00 · Clean sheets 15.8% · BTTS 63.2%

DHFC St. Pauli1-1
WAKarlsruher SC3-0
DAVfL Wolfsburg4-4
LHSpVgg Greuther Fürth3-4
LHFC Augsburg0-2

FC St. Pauli

LLDWD5-7-8

Scored 1.55 · Conceded 1.85 · Clean sheets 5% · BTTS 80%

DAEnergie Cottbus1-1
WHVfL Wolfsburg1-0
DAArminia Bielefeld2-2
LH1. FC Kaiserslautern1-2
LARot-Weiß Essen0-2

Head-to-head

7 meetings

Energie CottbusrecordFC St. Pauli

4 draws

Goals

5-9

for each

Avg goals

2.0

per game

BTTS

43%

both scored

Over 2.5

29%

3+ goals

Energie Cottbus

Recent

DDLDWD

Wins 1Goals 5-9

Biggest win 2-0

FC St. Pauli

Recent

DDWDLD

Wins 2Goals 9-5

Biggest win 3-0

Energie Cottbus1-1FC St. Pauli
2. BundesligaStadion der Freundschaft
9/20/26, 7:30 AM ET
Energie Cottbus1-1FC St. Pauli
2. BundesligaStadion der Freundschaft
4/17/14, 12:30 PM ET
FC St. Pauli3-0Energie Cottbus
2. BundesligaMillerntor-Stadion
11/11/13, 2:15 PM ET
FC St. Pauli0-0Energie Cottbus
2. BundesligaMillerntor-Stadion
2/3/13, 7:30 AM ET
Energie Cottbus2-0FC St. Pauli
2. BundesligaStadion der Freundschaft
8/25/12, 7:00 AM ET
FC St. Pauli0-0Energie Cottbus
2. BundesligaMillerntor-Stadion
3/25/12, 7:30 AM ET
Energie Cottbus1-4FC St. Pauli
2. BundesligaStadion der Freundschaft
10/1/11, 7:00 AM ET

Managers

C. Wollitz

Germany · 60

In charge since 2021 · 4 teams managed

Magdeburg2020–2020
Energie Cottbus2016–2019
Viktoria Köln2013–2014
Osnabrück2011–2013

M. Rapp

Germany · 46

In charge since 2026 · 3 teams managed

Hoffenheim U192017–2021

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.

The match report

Match report

Energie Cottbus and FC St. Pauli drew 1-1 at Stadion der Freundschaft, Cottbus.

How it unfolded: 37' Justin Butler (ENE), 80' Martijn Kaars (FC ).

The numbers, ENE to FC : possession 69% to 31%; shots on target 5 to 2; total shots 14 to 7; corners 9 to 3.

Top match ratings: J. Butler (ENE) at 7.8, M. Kaars (FC ) at 8.1.

Discipline: 5 yellow cards, 1 red (Tomoya Ando).

Changes off the bench: ENE 4, FC 4.

The model leaned Energie Cottbus at 39% and the match went the other way. It priced this outcome at 27%, so the result sits within the model's own uncertainty, but it goes in the ledger as a miss.

Score projection: the model's most likely scoreline was Energie Cottbus 2-1 FC St. Pauli; the match finished 1-1.

Ledger entry: the published 7.6-point edge on Energie Cottbus did not land. Logged in the open, as every edge is.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output and real match data

Match data

How it unfolded: 37' Justin Butler (ENE), 80' Martijn Kaars (FC ).
The numbers, ENE to FC : possession 69% to 31%; shots on target 5 to 2; total shots 14 to 7; corners 9 to 3.
Top match ratings: J. Butler (ENE) at 7.8, M. Kaars (FC ) at 8.1.
Discipline: 5 yellow cards, 1 red (Tomoya Ando).
Changes off the bench: ENE 4, FC 4.

How the model graded

The model leaned Energie Cottbus at 39% and the match went the other way. It priced this outcome at 27%, so the result sits within the model's own uncertainty, but it goes in the ledger as a miss.

Score projection: the model's most likely scoreline was Energie Cottbus 2-1 FC St. Pauli; the match finished 1-1.

Ledger entry: the published 7.6-point edge on Energie Cottbus did not land. Logged in the open, as every edge is.

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Energie Cottbus v FC St. Pauli

Where the market is wrong on Energie Cottbus v FC St. Pauli

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Energie Cottbus

FC St. Pauli

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