2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 4 · Germany

Holstein Kiel v 1. FC Nürnberg

2-2Full timeSep 5, 2026, 7:00 AM ET· Holstein-Stadion, Kiel· Referee: Tobias Stieler, Germany

Match analysisPre-match brief

Where the market is wrong on Holstein Kiel v 1. FC Nürnberg

Holstein Kiel meet 1. FC Nürnberg in the 2. Bundesliga regular season - 4 at Holstein-Stadion, Kiel.

The baseline ratings are close, 1541 to 1650, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans 1. FC Nürnberg, 73% against 55%. Attacking output favors 1. FC Nürnberg on expected goals, 2.6 to 1.6 per match.

Holstein Kiel arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v 1. FC Nürnberg, L 0-2 @ 1. FC Magdeburg, W 2-0 @ TSV 1860 München, D 2-2 v FC St. Pauli.

1. FC Nürnberg are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 14 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Holstein Kiel, W 4-1 v Arminia Bielefeld, D 1-1 @ FC Viktoria Köln, W 4-2 @ SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

Holstein Kiel hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Holstein Kiel 2-2 1. FC Nürnberg.

The market prices HOL at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on 1. FC Nürnberg: a 18.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

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Holstein Kiel

DDWLD8-5-6

Scored 1.63 · Conceded 1.53 · Clean sheets 26.3% · BTTS 63.2%

DH1. FC Nürnberg2-2
LA1. FC Magdeburg0-2
WATSV 1860 München2-0
DHFC St. Pauli2-2
DASV Darmstadt 982-2

1. FC Nürnberg

WWDWD11-7-2

Scored 2.60 · Conceded 1.15 · Clean sheets 25% · BTTS 65%

DAHolstein Kiel2-2
WHArminia Bielefeld4-1
DAFC Viktoria Köln1-1
WASpVgg Greuther Fürth4-2
WHDynamo Dresden3-0

Head-to-head

10 meetings

Holstein Kielrecord1. FC Nürnberg

3 draws

Goals

19-14

for each

Avg goals

3.3

per game

BTTS

70%

both scored

Over 2.5

70%

3+ goals

Holstein Kiel

Recent

DLDWLW

Wins 4Goals 19-14

Biggest win 4-0

1. FC Nürnberg

Recent

DWDLWL

Wins 3Goals 14-19

Biggest win 2-0

Holstein Kiel2-21. FC Nürnberg
2. BundesligaHolstein-Stadion
9/5/26, 7:00 AM ET
Holstein Kiel2-31. FC Nürnberg
2. BundesligaHolstein-Stadion
3/14/26, 8:00 AM ET
1. FC Nürnberg1-1Holstein Kiel
2. BundesligaMax-Morlock-Stadion
10/19/25, 7:30 AM ET
FC Nurnberg0-4Holstein Kiel
2. BundesligaMax-Morlock-Stadion
4/6/24, 7:00 AM ET
Holstein Kiel0-2FC Nurnberg
2. BundesligaHolstein-Stadion
10/29/23, 8:30 AM ET
Holstein Kiel2-1FC Nurnberg
2. BundesligaHolstein-Stadion
4/15/23, 7:00 AM ET
FC Nurnberg2-3Holstein Kiel
2. BundesligaMax-Morlock-Stadion
10/9/22, 7:30 AM ET
Holstein Kiel3-0FC Nurnberg
2. BundesligaHolstein-Stadion
5/8/22, 7:30 AM ET
FC Nurnberg2-1Holstein Kiel
2. BundesligaMax-Morlock-Stadion
12/4/21, 7:30 AM ET
FC Nurnberg1-1Holstein Kiel
2. BundesligaMax-Morlock-Stadion
4/27/21, 12:30 PM ET

Managers

Tim Walter

Head coach

In charge since 2025

M. Klose

Germany · 47

In charge since 2024 · 3 teams managed

Rheindorf Altach2022–2023
Bayern München U172018–2020

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.

The match report

Match report

Holstein Kiel and 1. FC Nürnberg drew 2-2 at Holstein-Stadion, Kiel.

How it unfolded: 41' A. Markhiev (1. ), 45' P. Harres (HOL), 50' A. Kapralik (HOL), 56' P. Scobel (1. ).

The numbers, HOL to 1. : possession 44% to 56%; shots on target 3 to 7; total shots 14 to 19; corners 10 to 8.

Top match ratings: Adrián Kaprálik (HOL) at 8.2, Adam Markhiev (1. ) at 7.6.

Discipline: 7 yellow cards.

Changes off the bench: HOL 3, 1. 5.

The model leaned 1. FC Nürnberg at 48% and the match went the other way. It priced this outcome at 26%, so the result sits within the model's own uncertainty, but it goes in the ledger as a miss.

Score projection: the model's most likely scoreline was Holstein Kiel 1-3 1. FC Nürnberg; the match finished 2-2.

Ledger entry: the published 18.5-point edge on 1. FC Nürnberg did not land. Logged in the open, as every edge is.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output and real match data

Match data

How it unfolded: 41' A. Markhiev (1. ), 45' P. Harres (HOL), 50' A. Kapralik (HOL), 56' P. Scobel (1. ).
The numbers, HOL to 1. : possession 44% to 56%; shots on target 3 to 7; total shots 14 to 19; corners 10 to 8.
Top match ratings: Adrián Kaprálik (HOL) at 8.2, Adam Markhiev (1. ) at 7.6.
Discipline: 7 yellow cards.
Changes off the bench: HOL 3, 1. 5.

How the model graded

The model leaned 1. FC Nürnberg at 48% and the match went the other way. It priced this outcome at 26%, so the result sits within the model's own uncertainty, but it goes in the ledger as a miss.

Score projection: the model's most likely scoreline was Holstein Kiel 1-3 1. FC Nürnberg; the match finished 2-2.

Ledger entry: the published 18.5-point edge on 1. FC Nürnberg did not land. Logged in the open, as every edge is.

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Holstein Kiel v 1. FC Nürnberg

Where the market is wrong on Holstein Kiel v 1. FC Nürnberg

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Holstein Kiel

1. FC Nürnberg

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