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Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8 · Portugal

Arouca v Estrela

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Arouca v Estrela: the model read

Arouca meet Estrela in the Primeira Liga regular season - 8.

The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1501, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 50%. Attacking output favors Estrela on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.

Arouca arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 9 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Maritimo, L 0-2 @ FC Porto, W 4-0 v Moreirense, W 1-0 @ Vitória SC.

Estrela are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 12 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ Nacional, D 2-2 @ Alverca, D 2-2 v Sporting CP, W 4-2 v Al-Nassr.

Arouca hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Arouca 1-0 Estrela.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Arouca

WWWLW9-3-8

Scored 1.30 · Conceded 1.15 · Clean sheets 35% · BTTS 45%

  • WHMaritimo2-1
  • LAFC Porto0-2
  • WHMoreirense4-0
  • WAVitória SC1-0
  • WALusitânia Lourosa2-0

Estrela

WWDDW6-5-6

Scored 1.59 · Conceded 1.29 · Clean sheets 29.4% · BTTS 52.9%

  • WANacional3-2
  • DAAlverca2-2
  • DHSporting CP2-2
  • WHAl-Nassr4-2
  • WHLusitano Évora 19111-0

Head-to-head

6 meetings

AroucarecordEstrela
3
2
1 draw

Goals

8-6

for each

Avg goals

2.3

per game

BTTS

50%

both scored

Over 2.5

50%

3+ goals

Arouca

Recent
WLWLDW
Wins 3Goals 8-6

Biggest win 4-1

Estrela

Recent
LWLWDL
Wins 2Goals 6-8

Biggest win 3-1

  • Arouca1-0Estrela
  • Estrela3-1Arouca
  • Arouca1-0Estrela
  • Estrela2-1Arouca
  • Arouca0-0Estrela
  • Estrela1-4Arouca

Managers

Vasco Seabra

Portugal · 42

In charge since 2024 · 8 teams managed

  • Estoril2023–2024
  • Marítimo2021–2022
  • Moreirense2021–2021
  • Boavista2020–2020

C. Bacci

Italy · 50

In charge since 2026 · 7 teams managed

  • Panserraikos2025–2025
  • Tondela2025–2025
  • Moreirense2025–2025
  • Boavista2024–2025

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.