Where the market is wrong on Arouca v Maritimo
Arouca meet Maritimo in the Primeira Liga regular season - 4 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 60%. Attacking output favors Arouca on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.2 per match.
Arouca arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 9 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Maritimo, L 0-2 @ FC Porto, W 4-0 v Moreirense, W 1-0 @ Vitória SC.
Maritimo are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Arouca, D 2-2 v Academico Viseu, W 2-1 @ Famalicao, W 1-0 v Casa Pia.
Arouca hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Arouca 2-1 Maritimo.
The market prices ARO at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on Maritimo: a 6.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 66 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
