Where the market is wrong on Hamburger SV v FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV meet FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga regular season - 2 at Volksparkstadion, Hamburg.
FSV Mainz 05 rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1673 to 1443. Recent form leans FSV Mainz 05, 73% against 40%. Attacking output favors FSV Mainz 05 on expected goals, 3.3 to 1.4 per match.
Hamburger SV arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-5 v FSV Mainz 05, L 0-2 @ Borussia Dortmund, W 3-0 @ Verl, W 2-1 @ Toulouse.
FSV Mainz 05 are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts), 20 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 @ Hamburger SV, D 0-0 v SC Paderborn 07, W 9-0 @ Krieschow, W 2-1 v Bournemouth.
FSV Mainz 05 hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Hamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05.
The market prices HAM at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on FSV Mainz 05: a 18.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 87 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
