Nesebar v Pirin Blagoevgrad

Nesebar meet Pirin Blagoevgrad in the Second League regular season - 5 at Gradski stadion, Nesebar.

Nesebar rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1707 to 1400. Recent form leans Nesebar, 78% against 28%. Attacking output favors Nesebar on expected goals, 3.3 to 0.8 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 37%, over 2.5 goals around 82%. Draw no bet leans Nesebar at 82%; double chance reads Nesebar or draw 86%, Pirin Blagoevgrad or draw 36%.

Nesebar arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 12 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 7-0 v Pirin Blagoevgrad, W 1-0 @ Sportist Svoge, W 2-0 v Dobrudzha, L 1-3 @ Montana.

Pirin Blagoevgrad are out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 3 scored and 19 conceded. Recent results: L 0-7 @ Nesebar, L 2-3 v Hebar 1918, L 0-1 @ Sportist Svoge, L 0-3 v CSKA Sofia II.

Pirin Blagoevgrad hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Nesebar 7-0 Pirin Blagoevgrad.

The market prices NES at 56% implied. Our number sits apart on Nesebar: a 7.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 78 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.