Where the market is wrong on Rilski Sportist v Ludogorets II
Rilski Sportist meet Ludogorets II in the Second League regular season - 1 at Stadion Iskar, undefined. The model makes Ludogorets II the most likely outcome at 34%, with the full read 33% RIL, 33% draw, 34% LUD.
The baseline ratings are close, 1650 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Rilski Sportist, 68% against 57%. Attacking output favors Ludogorets II on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 38%, over 2.5 goals around 31%. Draw no bet leans Ludogorets II at 51%; double chance reads Rilski Sportist or draw 66%, Ludogorets II or draw 67%.
Rilski Sportist arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v CSKA Sofia II, L 0-2 v Lokomotiv Plovdiv, W 1-0 v Vihren, L 0-2 v Arda Kardzhali.
Ludogorets II are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 10 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, W 2-0 v Chernomorets Burgas Sofia, L 2-3 @ Yantra 2019, D 1-1 v Nesebar.
The market prices RIL at 52% implied. Our number sits apart on Ludogorets II: a 11.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 80 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output