Where the market is wrong on AD Ceuta FC v Valladolid
AD Ceuta FC meet Valladolid in the Segunda División regular season - 6 at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 40%. Attacking output favors AD Ceuta FC on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.9 per match.
AD Ceuta FC arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Real Sociedad II, D 1-1 v Valladolid, L 1-3 @ Burgos, L 0-2 v Celta de Vigo II.
Valladolid are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 3 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ AD Ceuta FC, L 0-3 v Oviedo, W 1-0 v FC Andorra, D 1-1 @ Cadiz.
Valladolid hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: AD Ceuta FC 1-1 Valladolid.
The market prices AD at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
