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Derby v Valencia

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Derby v Valencia: the model read

Derby meet Valencia in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies. The model makes Derby the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% DER, 30% draw, 33% VAL.

The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 50%. Attacking output favors Derby on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 60%, over 2.5 goals around 58%. Draw no bet leans Derby at 53%; double chance reads Derby or draw 67%, Valencia or draw 63%.

Derby arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ SC Freiburg, W 2-0 @ Alfreton Town, L 1-2 v Sheffield Utd, W 3-2 @ QPR.

Valencia are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 12 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Castellón, W 3-0 v Eldense, L 1-3 @ Petro de Luanda, W 3-1 v Barcelona.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Derby

LWLWL10-1-9

Scored 1.60 · Conceded 1.30 · Clean sheets 35% · BTTS 55%

  • LASC Freiburg1-3
  • WAAlfreton Town2-0
  • LHSheffield Utd1-2
  • WAQPR3-2
  • LANorwich1-2

Valencia

WWLWL9-2-9

Scored 1.45 · Conceded 1.35 · Clean sheets 25% · BTTS 55%

  • LHCastellón1-2
  • WHEldense3-0
  • LAPetro de Luanda1-3
  • WHBarcelona3-1
  • WAReal Sociedad4-3

Managers

J. Eustace

Head coach

In charge since 2025 · 5 clubs managed

  • Blackburn2024–2024
  • Birmingham2022–2023
  • QPR2019–2019
  • Kidderminster Harriers2016–2018

José Bordalás

Head coach

In charge since 2021 · 2 clubs managed

  • Getafe2016–2021

Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.