Shanghai Shenhua v Qingdao Jonoon

Shanghai Shenhua meet Qingdao Jonoon in the FA Cup round of 16 at Shanghai Stadium, Shanghai. The model makes Shanghai Shenhua the most likely outcome at 45%, with the full read 45% SHA, 27% draw, 29% QIN.

Shanghai Shenhua rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1565 to 1443. Recent form leans Shanghai Shenhua, 58% against 40%. Attacking output favors Shanghai Shenhua on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 76%, over 2.5 goals around 84%. Draw no bet leans Shanghai Shenhua at 61%; double chance reads Shanghai Shenhua or draw 71%, Qingdao Jonoon or draw 55%.

Shanghai Shenhua arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ SHANGHAI SIPG, W 4-1 v Qingdao Jonoon, L 0-2 v Tianjin Teda, W 3-2 v Hangzhou Greentown.

Qingdao Jonoon are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 5 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Tianjin Teda, L 1-4 @ Shanghai Shenhua, L 1-5 @ Henan Jianye, L 2-3 @ Hangzhou Greentown.

Shanghai Shenhua hold the recent head-to-head, 9 wins to 0 across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Shanghai Shenhua 4-1 Qingdao Jonoon.

The market prices SHA at 81% implied. Our number sits apart on Qingdao Jonoon: a 22.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.