Burnley v Derby: the model read
Burnley meet Derby in the Championship regular season - 8 at Turf Moor, Burnley.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Derby, 45% against 20%. Attacking output favors Derby on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.9 per match.
Burnley arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Middlesbrough, L 1-4 @ Norwich, D 0-0 @ Bradford, L 1-3 @ West Brom.
Derby are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Portsmouth, L 0-3 v Swansea, D 2-2 v Cardiff, L 1-2 @ Charlton.
Burnley hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 0 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Burnley 2-1 Derby.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
