Where the market is wrong on Norwich v Burnley
Norwich meet Burnley in the Championship regular season - 3 at Carrow Road, Norwich.
Norwich rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1558 to 1400. Recent form leans Norwich, 57% against 20%. Attacking output favors Norwich on expected goals, 1.5 to 0.8 per match.
Norwich arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Stoke City, W 4-1 v Burnley, W 2-1 @ Cardiff, L 0-3 @ Millwall.
Burnley are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ Norwich, D 0-0 @ Bradford, L 1-3 @ West Brom, D 2-2 v West Ham.
The market prices NOR at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on Norwich: a 4.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 67 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
