Where the market is wrong on QPR v Bolton
QPR meet Bolton in the Championship regular season - 2 at Loftus Road, London.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 57%. Attacking output favors QPR on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 58%, over 2.5 goals around 54%. Draw no bet leans QPR at 50%; double chance reads QPR or draw 65%, Bolton or draw 65%.
QPR arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 14 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Bolton, W 3-1 @ Portsmouth, D 1-1 v Millwall, W 3-2 @ AFC Wimbledon.
Bolton are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 4 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ QPR, W 2-1 v Preston, L 0-1 @ Sheffield Wednesday, W 1-0 v NAC Breda.
QPR hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: QPR 0-0 Bolton.
The market prices QPR at 50% implied. Our number sits apart on Bolton: a 10.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
