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World Cup · Round of 32 · World

Brazil v Japan

2-1Full time· NRG Stadium, Houston· Referee: Maurizio Mariani, Italy

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Brazil v Japan: the model read

Brazil meet Japan in the World Cup round of 32 at NRG Stadium, Houston.

The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1661, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 65% against 73%. Attacking output favors Brazil on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.9 per match.

Brazil arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 10 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Norway, W 2-1 v Japan, W 3-0 @ Scotland, W 3-0 v Haiti.

Japan are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Brazil, D 1-1 v Sweden, W 4-0 @ Tunisia, D 2-2 @ Netherlands.

Brazil hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Brazil 2-1 Japan.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Brazil

DWWWL11-4-5

Scored 2.00 · Conceded 1.05 · Clean sheets 35% · BTTS 60%

  • LHNorway1-2
  • WHJapan2-1
  • WAScotland3-0
  • WHHaiti3-0
  • DHMorocco1-1

Japan

WDWDL12-5-3

Scored 1.90 · Conceded 0.65 · Clean sheets 60% · BTTS 30%

  • LABrazil1-2
  • DHSweden1-1
  • WATunisia4-0
  • DANetherlands2-2
  • WHIceland1-0

Head-to-head

5 meetings

BrazilrecordJapan
4
1
0 draws

Goals

11-5

for each

Avg goals

3.2

per game

BTTS

60%

both scored

Over 2.5

80%

3+ goals

Brazil

Recent
WLWWW
Wins 4Goals 11-5

Biggest win 3-0

Japan

Recent
LWLLL
Wins 1Goals 5-11

Biggest win 3-2

  • Brazil2-1Japan
  • Japan3-2Brazil
  • Japan0-1Brazil
  • Japan1-3Brazil
  • Brazil3-0Japan

Managers

C. Ancelotti

Italy · 66

In charge since 2025 · 11 teams managed

  • Real Madrid2021–2025
  • Everton2019–2021
  • Napoli2018–2019
  • Bayern Munich2016–2017

H. Moriyasu

Japan · 57

In charge since 2018 · 3 teams managed

  • Japan U232017–2021
  • Sanfrecce Hiroshima2012–2017

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.