Where the market is wrong on Linfield v Crusaders FC
Linfield meet Crusaders FC in the Premiership regular season - 8 at Windsor Park, Belfast.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1627, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Crusaders FC, 65% against 55%. Attacking output favors Crusaders FC on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.4 per match.
Linfield arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts), 6 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Crusaders FC, D 1-1 @ Portadown, W 1-0 @ Dungannon Swifts, W 1-0 v Carrick Rangers.
Crusaders FC are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Linfield, W 3-0 v Dungannon Swifts, L 1-2 v Limavady United, L 1-4 @ Coleraine FC.
Linfield hold the recent head-to-head, 10 wins to 0 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Linfield 1-0 Crusaders FC.
The market prices LIN at 73% implied. Our number sits apart on Crusaders FC: a 28.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
