Where the market is wrong on Portadown v Linfield
Portadown meet Linfield in the Premiership regular season - 7 at Shamrock Park, Portadown.
The baseline ratings are close, 1432 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Linfield, 53% against 39%. Attacking output favors Linfield on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.
Portadown arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 4 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Linfield, L 0-2 v Larne, L 1-3 @ Cliftonville FC, L 0-3 v Coleraine FC.
Linfield are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 6 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Portadown, W 1-0 @ Dungannon Swifts, W 1-0 v Carrick Rangers, W 2-0 @ Limavady United.
The market prices POR at 12% implied. Our number sits apart on Portadown: a 17.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
