CSKA Moscow v Baltika

CSKA Moscow meet Baltika in the Premier League regular season - 1 at VEB Arena, Moscow. The model makes Baltika the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 27% CSK, 30% draw, 43% BAL.

The baseline ratings are close, 1468 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 50%. Attacking output favors Baltika on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 49%. Draw no bet leans Baltika at 62%; double chance reads CSKA Moscow or draw 57%, Baltika or draw 73%.

CSKA Moscow arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Baltika, L 2-5 @ Dynamo, L 0-1 @ Lokomotiv, L 0-2 @ FC Orenburg.

Baltika are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 14 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ CSKA Moscow, D 1-1 @ FC Krasnodar, W 6-0 @ Tikveš, W 5-0 @ Tikveš.

CSKA Moscow hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: CSKA Moscow 2-1 Baltika.

The market prices CSK at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on Baltika: a 18.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.