Where the market is wrong on Humenné v Tatran Prešov
Humenné meet Tatran Prešov in the 2. liga regular season - 1. The model makes Humenné the most likely outcome at 61%, with the full read 61% HUM, 23% draw, 16% TAT.
Humenné rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1408. Recent form leans Humenné, 70% against 38%. Attacking output favors Humenné on expected goals, 3.1 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 45%, over 2.5 goals around 82%. Draw no bet leans Humenné at 79%; double chance reads Humenné or draw 84%, Tatran Prešov or draw 39%.
Humenné arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Tatran Prešov, L 1-4 v Sandecja Nowy Sącz, L 0-1 v FK Košice, W 2-0 @ Lipany.
Tatran Prešov are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 3 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Humenné, D 0-0 @ Sandecja Nowy Sącz, D 1-1 @ Raslavice, L 0-5 @ Kisvarda FC.
The market prices HUM at 32% implied. Our number sits apart on Humenné: a 29.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 88 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output