Where the market is wrong on Traiskirchen v Bleiburg
Traiskirchen meet Bleiburg in the Cup round of 64 at Arbo Arena, undefined. The model makes Traiskirchen the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% TRA, 28% draw, 35% BLE.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 50%. Attacking output favors Traiskirchen on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 77%, over 2.5 goals around 79%. Draw no bet leans Traiskirchen at 51%; double chance reads Traiskirchen or draw 65%, Bleiburg or draw 63%.
Traiskirchen arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v Bleiburg, W 2-0 @ Leithaprodersdorf, L 1-5 @ Leobendorf, L 2-4 v Neusiedl.
Bleiburg are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 @ Traiskirchen, L 1-2 v Donau Klagenfurt, W 2-1 @ Köttmannsdorf, W 4-0 v Dellach im Gailtal.
The market prices TRA at 77% implied. Our number sits apart on Bleiburg: a 27.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
