Where the market is wrong on Dornbirn v Ried
Dornbirn meet Ried in the Cup round of 64 at Stadion Birkenwiese, Dornbirn. The model makes Ried the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% DOR, 28% draw, 36% RIE.
The baseline ratings are close, 1480 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 50%. Attacking output favors Dornbirn on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 79%, over 2.5 goals around 81%. Draw no bet leans Ried at 50%; double chance reads Dornbirn or draw 64%, Ried or draw 64%.
Dornbirn arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 6 scored and 17 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 v Ried, L 0-4 @ Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz, L 1-2 @ Pinzgau Saalfelden, L 1-2 v SVG Reichenau.
Ried are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 11 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 @ Dornbirn, L 0-4 @ Mlada Boleslav, W 3-0 v Rot-Weiß Essen, D 1-1 v Başakşehir.
Ried hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 0 across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Dornbirn 1-5 Ried.
The market prices DOR at 6% implied. Our number sits apart on Dornbirn: a 29.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
