Where the market is wrong on Aurora v Malacateco
Aurora meet Malacateco in the Liga Nacional regular season - 6 at Estadio Guillermo Slowing, Amatitlan.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 35% against 30%. Attacking output favors Malacateco on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.7 per match.
Aurora arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Malacateco, W 3-2 v Suchitepéquez, L 1-2 @ Deportivo San Pedro, W 3-1 v Comunicaciones.
Malacateco are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Aurora, W 2-0 v Deportivo San Pedro, L 2-4 @ Comunicaciones, D 2-2 v Xelajú.
Aurora hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Aurora 1-0 Malacateco.
The market prices AUR at 47% implied. Our number sits apart on Malacateco: a 8.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 66 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
