Independente SP v Tupa: the model read
Independente SP meet Tupa in the Paulista Série B round of 16. The model makes Independente SP the most likely outcome at 62%, with the full read 62% IND, 22% draw, 16% TUP.
Independente SP rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1719 to 1466. Recent form leans Independente SP, 78% against 43%. Attacking output favors Independente SP on expected goals, 2.7 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 45%, over 2.5 goals around 84%. Draw no bet leans Independente SP at 80%; double chance reads Independente SP or draw 84%, Tupa or draw 38%.
Independente SP arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 7 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Flamengo SP, W 2-1 v Sporting Paulinense, W 1-0 @ Sporting Paulinense, W 2-0 v Tupa.
Tupa are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 3 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Independente SP, L 0-2 v Independente SP, L 1-2 v Santa Fé FC, W 1-0 @ Riopretano.
Independente SP hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Independente SP 2-0 Tupa.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 59 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output