Where the market is wrong on U. San Martin v Carlos A. Mannucci
U. San Martin meet Carlos A. Mannucci in the Segunda División regular season - 11 at Villa Deportiva USMP, Lima. The model makes U. San Martin the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% U. , 29% draw, 35% CAR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1504, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Carlos A. Mannucci, 50% against 40%. Attacking output favors Carlos A. Mannucci on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 67%, over 2.5 goals around 66%. Draw no bet leans U. San Martin at 51%; double chance reads U. San Martin or draw 65%, Carlos A. Mannucci or draw 64%.
U. San Martin arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 13 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Carlos A. Mannucci, L 2-3 @ Molinos El Pirata, L 3-4 @ Academia Cantolao, D 2-2 v Sport Boys.
Carlos A. Mannucci are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ U. San Martin, W 1-0 v Deportivo Llacuabamba, D 1-1 @ Atletico Grau, W 3-2 @ Cesar Vallejo.
Carlos A. Mannucci hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: U. San Martin 2-0 Carlos A. Mannucci.
The market prices U. at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on Carlos A. Mannucci: a 9.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
