Where the market is wrong on Ipswich v Fulham
Ipswich meet Fulham in the Premier League regular season - 6 at Portman Road, Ipswich.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Ipswich, 57% against 45%. Attacking output favors Ipswich on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.1 per match.
Ipswich arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Everton, L 2-4 v Arsenal, W 3-2 @ Crystal Palace, L 0-2 v Liverpool.
Fulham are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Manchester United, W 3-2 @ West Ham, D 0-0 @ Liverpool, L 2-3 v Crystal Palace.
Fulham hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Fulham 2-2 Ipswich.
The market prices IPS at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on Ipswich: a 3.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 61 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
